Recently, flow-based generative models have shown superior efficiency compared to diffusion models. In this paper, we study rectified flow models, which constrain transport trajectories to be linear from the base distribution to the data distribution. This structural restriction greatly accelerates sampling, often enabling high-quality generation with a single Euler step. Under standard assumptions on the neural network classes used to parameterize the velocity field and data distribution, we prove that rectified flows achieve sample complexity $\tilde{O}(\varepsilon^{-2})$. This improves on the best known $O(\varepsilon^{-4})$ bounds for flow matching model and matches the optimal rate for mean estimation. Our analysis exploits the particular structure of rectified flows: because the model is trained with a squared loss along linear paths, the associated hypothesis class admits a sharply controlled localized Rademacher complexity. This yields the improved, order-optimal sample complexity and provides a theoretical explanation for the strong empirical performance of rectified flow models.

Satellite data of atmospheric pollutants are often available only at coarse spatial resolution, limiting their applicability in local-scale environmental analysis and decision-making. Spatial downscaling methods aim to transform the coarse satellite data into high-resolution fields. In this work, two widely used deep learning architectures, the super-resolution deep residual network (SRDRN) and the encoder-decoder-based UNet, are considered for spatial downscaling of tropospheric ozone. Both methods are extended with a lightweight temporal module, which encodes observation time using either sinusoidal or radial basis function (RBF) encoding, and fuses the temporal features with the spatial representations in the networks. The proposed time-aware extensions are evaluated against their baseline counterparts in a case study on ozone downscaling over Italy. The results suggest that, while only slightly increasing computational complexity, the temporal modules significantly improve downscaling performance and convergence speed.

Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting is crucial for public health, disaster preparedness, and agriculture, and yet it remains a particularly challenging timescale to predict. We explore the use of an interpretable AI-informed model analog forecasting approach, previously employed on longer timescales, to improve S2S predictions. Using an artificial neural network, we learn a mask of weights to optimize analog selection and showcase its versatility across three varied prediction tasks: 1) classification of Week 3-4 Southern California summer temperatures; 2) regional regression of Month 1 midwestern U.S. summer temperatures; and 3) classification of Month 1-2 North Atlantic wintertime upper atmospheric winds. The AI-informed analogs outperform traditional analog forecasting approaches, as well as climatology and persistence baselines, for deterministic and probabilistic skill metrics on both climate model and reanalysis data. We find the analog ensembles built using the AI-informed approach also produce better predictions of temperature extremes and improve representation of forecast uncertainty. Finally, by using an interpretable-AI framework, we analyze the learned masks of weights to better understand S2S sources of predictability.

We present a non-linear AI-model designed to reconstruct monthly mean anomalies of the European temperature and precipitation based on the Euro-Atlantic Weather regimes (WR) indices. WR represent recurrent, quasi-stationary, and persistent states of the atmospheric circulation that exert considerable influence over the European weather, therefore offering an opportunity for sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. While much research has focused on studying the correlation and impacts of the WR on European weather, the estimation of ground-level climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, from Euro-Atlantic WR remains largely unexplored and is currently limited to linear methods. The presented AI model can capture and introduce complex non-linearities in the relation between the WR indices, describing the state of the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation and the corresponding surface temperature and precipitation anomalies in Europe. We discuss the AI-model performance in reconstructing the monthly mean two-meter temperature and total precipitation anomalies in the European winter and summer, also varying the number of WR used to describe the monthly atmospheric circulation. We assess the impact of errors on the WR indices in the reconstruction and show that a mean absolute relative error below 80% yields improved seasonal reconstruction compared to the ECMWF operational seasonal forecast system, SEAS5. As a demonstration of practical applicability, we evaluate the model using WR indices predicted by SEAS5, finding slightly better or comparable skill relative to the SEAS5 forecast itself. Our findings demonstrate that WR-based anomaly reconstruction, powered by AI tools, offers a promising pathway for sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting.

With the increasing reliance on AI models for weather forecasting, it is imperative to evaluate their vulnerability to adversarial perturbations. This work introduces Weather Adaptive Adversarial Perturbation Optimization (W AAPO), a novel framework for generating targeted adversarial perturbations that are both effective in manipulating forecasts and stealthy to avoid detection. W AAPO achieves this by incorporating constraints for channel sparsity, spatial localization, and smoothness, ensuring that perturbations remain physically realistic and imperceptible. Using the ERA5 dataset and FourCastNet (Pathak et al. 2022), we demonstrate W AAPO's ability to generate adversarial trajectories that align closely with predefined targets, even under constrained conditions. Our experiments highlight critical vulnerabilities in AI-driven forecasting models, where small perturbations to initial conditions can result in significant deviations in predicted weather patterns. These findings underscore the need for robust safeguards to protect against adversarial exploitation in operational forecasting systems. The code for W AAPO is available at: https://github.com/Huzaifa-Arif/W

Radar-based precipitation nowcasting, the task of forecasting short-term precipitation fields from previous radar images, is a critical problem for flood risk management and decision-making. While deep learning has substantially advanced this field, two challenges remain fundamental: the uncertainty of atmospheric dynamics and the efficient modeling of high-dimensional data. Diffusion models have shown strong promise by producing sharp, reliable forecasts, but their iterative sampling process is computationally prohibitive for time-critical applications. We introduce FlowCast, the first end-to-end probabilistic model leveraging Conditional Flow Matching (CFM) as a direct noise-to-data generative framework for precipitation nowcasting. Unlike hybrid approaches, FlowCast learns a direct noise-to-data mapping in a compressed latent space, enabling rapid, high-fidelity sample generation. Our experiments demonstrate that FlowCast establishes a new state-of-the-art in probabilistic performance while also exceeding deterministic baselines in predictive accuracy. A direct comparison further reveals the CFM objective is both more accurate and significantly more efficient than a diffusion objective on the same architecture, maintaining high performance with significantly fewer sampling steps. This work positions CFM as a powerful and practical alternative for high-dimensional spatiotemporal forecasting.

Quantum machine learning offers a promising pathway for enhancing stock market prediction, particularly under complex, noisy, and highly dynamic financial environments. However, many classical forecasting models struggle with noisy input, regime shifts, and limited generalization capacity. To address these challenges, we propose a Quantum Temporal Convolutional Neural Network (QTCNN) that combines a classical temporal encoder with parameter-efficient quantum convolution circuits for cross-sectional equity return prediction. The temporal encoder extracts multi-scale patterns from sequential technical indicators, while the quantum processing leverages superposition and entanglement to enhance feature representation and suppress overfitting. We conduct a comprehensive benchmarking study on the JPX Tokyo Stock Exchange dataset and evaluate predictions through long-short portfolio construction using out-of-sample Sharpe ratio as the primary performance metric. QTCNN achieves a Sharpe ratio of 0.538, outperforming the best classical baseline by approximately 72\%. These results highlight the practical potential of quantum-enhanced forecasting model, QTCNN, for robust decision-making in quantitative finance.

As web agents (e.g., Deep Research) routinely consume massive volumes of web pages to gather and analyze information, LLM context management -- under large token budgets and low signal density -- emerges as a foundational, high-importance, and technically challenging problem for agentic and RAG pipelines. Existing solutions for extracting relevant content are inadequate: generative extraction models suffer from high latency, rule-based heuristics lack adaptability, and chunk-and-rerank methods are blind to webpage structure. To overcome these issues, we introduce Index-based Web Content Extraction to reframe the extraction process from slow, token-by-token generation into a highly efficient, discriminative task of index prediction, achieving both effectiveness and efficiency. We partition HTML into structure-aware, addressable segments, and extract only the positional indices of content relevant to a given query. This method decouples extraction latency from content length, enabling rapid, query-relevant extraction. We first evaluate our method as a post-retrieval processing component within an RAG QA system and find that it improves QA accuracy. Then we directly measure its match rate with the target content in two scenarios: main content extraction (ME) and query-relevant extraction (QE). Experimental results show that our method outperforms existing works in both accuracy and speed, effectively bridging the gap between LLMs and the vast webpages.

Among the various types of cyberattacks, identifying zero-day attacks is problematic because they are unknown to security systems as their pattern and characteristics do not match known blacklisted attacks. There are many Machine Learning (ML) models designed to analyze and detect network attacks, especially using supervised models. However, these models are designed to classify samples (normal and attacks) based on the patterns they learn during the training phase, so they perform inefficiently on unseen attacks. This research addresses this issue by evaluating five different supervised models to assess their performance and execution time in predicting zero-day attacks and find out which model performs accurately and quickly. The goal is to improve the performance of these supervised models by not only proposing a framework that applies grid search, dimensionality reduction and oversampling methods to overcome the imbalance problem, but also comparing the effectiveness of oversampling on ml model metrics, in particular the accuracy. To emulate attack detection in real life, this research applies a highly imbalanced data set and only exposes the classifiers to zero-day attacks during the testing phase, so the models are not trained to flag the zero-day attacks. Our results show that Random Forest (RF) performs best under both oversampling and non-oversampling conditions, this increased effectiveness comes at the cost of longer processing times. Therefore, we selected XG Boost (XGB) as the top model due to its fast and highly accurate performance in detecting zero-day attacks.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world, agentic settings where outputs must not only be correct, but also conform to predefined data schemas. Despite recent progress in structured generation in textual domain, there is still no benchmark that systematically evaluates schema-grounded information extraction and reasoning over visual inputs. In this work, we conduct a comprehensive study of visual structural output capabilities for MLLMs with our carefully designed SO-Bench benchmark. Covering four visual domains, including UI screens, natural images, documents, and charts, SO-Bench is built from over 6.5K diverse JSON schemas and 1.8K curated image-schema pairs with human-verified quality. Benchmarking experiments on open-sourced and frontier proprietary models reveal persistent gaps in predicting accurate, schema compliant outputs, highlighting the need for better multimodal structured reasoning. Beyond benchmarking, we further conduct training experiments to largely improve the model's structured output capability. We plan to make the benchmark available to the community.